How Predictly works
The whole thing in plain words — what the numbers mean, who decides what happened, and where the boundaries are.
What Predictly is
A place to put a number on questions that matter to you and your people, and to find out — with evidence — how good that number was. You can forecast a probability, or buy and sell YES/NO positions in a small market. Both are scored, separately, and neither has anything to do with money.
Points are free and have no real-world value.
They can’t be bought, transferred, exchanged, or redeemed for anything. There is no path — now or later — by which points touch money. Nothing you do here wins you anything of value, and nothing you do here can cost you anything.
Public and circles are completely separate
You have one set of points and one ranking in Public, and a separate set in every circle you join. A great run in your book club does nothing to your Public standing, and vice versa. This is not a display choice — the balances, the leaderboards, and even the coach’s inputs are stored and computed per context.
Every screen that shows a number tells you which context it belongs to. We never add them up.
Probability questions
You state a percentage. You can revise it as often as you like until the question closes; your last forecast before close is the one that counts, and every revision is kept.
Scoring is the Brier score: the square of the gap between what you said and what happened. Say 70% on something that happens and you score 0.09; say 70% on something that doesn’t and you score 0.49. Lower is better, and we show it as a normalized score where higher is better, to save you the mental flip.
The consensus is hidden until you forecast. That’s deliberate — seeing the crowd first pulls your number toward theirs, and then neither of you learns anything.
Trading questions
A trading question is a small market with an automated market maker. The price you see is an implied probability, not a guarantee and not a promise. One correct share settles at 100 points; an incorrect one settles at zero.
You get a quote before you commit — shares, cost, average price, the price after your trade, and the most you could lose. The quote lasts 20 seconds. If the market moves in that time we show you the new terms and wait; we never execute different terms than the ones you confirmed.
A worked example
Spending 500 points on YES in a Normal market sitting at 50.0%:
- Shares you receive
- 9.761860
- Cost
- 500.00 pts
- Average price paid
- 51.22%
- Price after your trade
- 52.44%
- Settlement if YES
- 976.19 pts
- Most you can lose
- 500.00 pts
Your trade moved the price from 50.0% to 52.4%, which is why your average price is above where it started. A more sensitive market moves further on the same points.
Resolution and disputes
Someone has to say what happened. Either the person who wrote the question (or a circle moderator) proposes an outcome with evidence, and everyone gets a window — usually 24 hours — to dispute it before it becomes final; or the circle’s members vote, with a quorum and a threshold agreed when the question was created.
If a resolver holds a position on their own question, that’s shown on the question and next to everything they post, and the dispute window is forced to at least 24 hours. If a question goes unresolved for 30 days past its due date it’s voided automatically and everyone’s remaining cost basis is refunded.
Seasons and rankings
Seasons run in quarters in Public and in whatever length a circle picks. Everyone starts each season with the same 10,000 points, so a season is a fair race rather than a compounding lead.
You need five resolved participations in a context before you get an official rank. Below that you’re shown as provisional, with the count, so nobody tops a leaderboard on one lucky call.
Accuracy and trading are ranked separately and never merged. They measure different things.
The coach
After a question you took part in resolves, and only if you’ve opted in, the coach writes you a private review of how you decided. It reads your own records for that one question — your forecasts, your trades, your notes, and the public price and consensus history — and nothing else. Never another member’s notes, votes, or positions.
It reviews how you decided. It never predicts, trades, scores, or ranks. Every claim it makes has to cite a specific record of yours, and anything it can’t cite is rejected before you ever see it. Anything it says about a missed factor may only cite things that existed before the question closed — it isn’t allowed to be wise after the event.
Community rules
Write questions that can be resolved from a stated source. No harassment, no questions about a named private individual’s death or injury, no illegal acts. Resolve what you create, on time.
Terms
Last updated 4 February 2027.
Privacy
Last updated 4 February 2027.